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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.