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China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.