Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The mean number of daily homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that homicide data might not signal improved national security.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November versus nearly 87 when the President began the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is very significant,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the least number of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is especially true given the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure days when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.