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Within the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.