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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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