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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."