Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.