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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.